Why electrification alone can't decarbonise road transport by 2026 ?

The all-electric myth: Europe's energy mix in 2026

Electrification is often presented as the only horizon for Europe's energy transition. Yet electricity, from all sources combined, still covers only around a third of the European Union's final energy consumption.

The remaining two thirds — industrial heat, heavy mobility, road transport, shipping, aviation — still rely heavily on fossil fuels. Electricity grids, renewable generation capacity and charging infrastructure are simply not being deployed fast enough to close that gap before the climate deadlines already set.

This is not an argument against electrification, but a reminder of its timing constraints. A credible decarbonisation strategy needs to mobilise several levers in parallel, rather than betting everything on a single technology that will only reach scale in ten or twenty years.

Road transport can't wait until 2040

Road transport alone accounts for roughly 70% of the transport sector's emissions in Europe. It is the heaviest item on the ledger, and the one where fast action has the most measurable effect on the overall climate trajectory.

Fully renewing a vehicle fleet — vans, trucks, coaches — takes decades, not years. A truck put into service today will still be on the road in 2035, or later, running on its original combustion engine.

The gap between ambition and the existing fleet

Climate targets are set for 2030 and 2050, but most road emissions between now and then will come from vehicles already on the road. Waiting for full fleet electrification before acting means deferring decarbonisation by a decade the climate timeline simply does not allow.

For a fleet director or sustainability officer, the question is not electric versus combustion in the long run, but finding a lever that works right now, on the fleet as it actually stands.

The immediate fix: HVO100's drop-in advantage

Renewable liquid fuels, HVO100 foremost among them, offer a concrete answer to this timing mismatch. They are drop-in fuels: usable in existing diesel engines with no mechanical modification, and distributed through storage and delivery infrastructure already in place.

The GHG impact is therefore available from the very first tank, without waiting for vehicle replacement or dedicated charging infrastructure to be built. HVO100 delivers a GHG emissions reduction of up to 90% (depending on feedstock and the calculation methodology under the RED II / RED III directives).

What drop-in changes in practice

• No engine or vehicle modification required
• Uses existing tanks and fuelling stations
• Measurable emissions reduction from the very first delivery
• No operational disruption for logistics teams
• Compatible with a mixed fleet during the transition to electric

This lever does not replace long-term electrification, it complements it. It lets a fleet cut its carbon footprint today while calmly preparing its transition to alternative powertrains over a longer horizon.

The road transport regulatory gap and the case for a post-2030 mandate

Aviation and shipping already have binding regulatory instruments to accelerate the uptake of renewable fuels. ReFuelEU Aviation sets rising mandatory blending quotas for sustainable aviation fuel, and FuelEU Maritime sets targets for cutting the GHG intensity of energy used at sea.

Road transport, despite its weight in sector emissions, has no equivalent sector-specific mechanism. The RED III directive sets overall renewable targets for transport at member-state level, but with no specific, binding mandate dedicated to renewable liquid fuels on the road.

This regulatory gap creates uncertainty for producers and distributors, who are reluctant to invest heavily in production capacity without visibility on future demand. A post-2030 road mandate, aligned with the logic of ReFuelEU and FuelEU, would send a clear signal to investors and secure available volumes for fleets.

Without a binding instrument dedicated to road transport, the availability and price of renewable liquid fuels will remain hostage to trade-offs made by sectors better protected by regulation.

How to start diversify our energy mix?

Electrification remains a pillar of the transition, but it cannot carry the full weight of road decarbonisation by 2030 on its own. Renewable liquid fuels, HVO100 among them, offer a lever available right now, compatible with the existing fleet and infrastructure.

Diversifying the energy mix also strengthens strategic autonomy against volatile fossil markets and import dependence. A fleet that combines gradual electrification with renewable liquid fuels reduces both its exposure and its emissions at the same time.