e-SAF: why aviation must fund synthetic fuels before buying them

The reality check: aviation hits the e-fuel wall

Within the EU, aviation's CO2 emissions have risen 106% since 1990. Unlike road transport, the sector has no breakthrough alternative on the near or medium horizon: electric and hydrogen propulsion remain confined to niche uses or distant deployment timelines.

In this context, synthetic sustainable aviation fuels, or e-SAF, become unavoidable. Made from low-carbon electricity, captured CO2 and water, they are the only identified pathway to decarbonise jet fuel at scale without redesigning existing engines or aircraft.

A joint report by France's IGF (General Finance Inspectorate) and IGEDD (General Inspectorate for Environment and Sustainable Development), published in September 2026, lays out the situation without detours. It warns of a structural mismatch between regulatory ambition and the sector's industrial and financial reality.

5 economic truths that change the picture

The IGF/IGEDD report identifies five findings that shape the entire e-SAF trajectory in Europe. Together they explain why the regulatory calendar and actual production capacity do not currently align.

• A mandate ahead of supply: ReFuelEU requires 1.2% e-SAF in 2030, 2% in 2032 and 35% in 2050, yet as of April 1, 2026 none of the 80 European projects tracked (around 3.1 Mt/year) had reached final investment decision.
• A massive cost gap: first-generation e-SAF is estimated at €5,000-8,000 per tonne, 7 to 11 times the 2025 jet fuel price, with an abatement cost of €1,500-2,200 per tonne of CO2 by 2030.
• Highly capital-intensive projects: a 100 kt/year plant requires €1.5-2 billion in investment, with the plant itself accounting for 41-46% of total cost and electricity for 33-39%.
• A demand-side lock: financiers require firm 10-15 year offtake contracts before committing capital, while airlines have traditionally bought jet fuel on the spot market.
• Real strengths for France: low-carbon electricity eligible on par with Nordic countries, access to biogenic CO2, 14% of European jet fuel consumption, and 11 announced projects totalling 760 kt/year, or 26% of European capacity.

Taken together, these findings point to a clear trajectory: e-SAF production will remain structurally insufficient until at least 2032-2033, regardless of political ambition. The bottleneck is not technological, it is financial and contractual.

The "double auction": the key mechanism to fund production

To unlock stalled projects, the IGF/IGEDD report describes a public support mechanism called the "double auction". The logic is simple even if implementation is complex: the State buys e-SAF from producers at a price covering their real production costs, often in the €5,000-8,000 per tonne range.

In a second step, the State resells those same volumes to end buyers, airlines and ultimately travellers and shippers, at a price closer to market level. The gap between the two prices, essentially the production surcharge, is absorbed by the public sector through this scheme.

The national scheme under consideration targets 150 kt/year over ten years, with a net cost estimated between €0.1 billion and €7 billion, with a central estimate around €4 billion. That wide range itself illustrates how much uncertainty still surrounds the real cost of the transition.

The double auction does not eliminate the e-SAF cost gap: it redistributes who bears it, between public finances and the price paid by end buyers.

What this means for businesses and buyers

Whatever the level of public support, part of the cost gap will be passed through into ticket prices and air freight rates. The report estimates the ReFuelEU-related surcharge at between €4 billion and €14 billion for France by 2050, with a possible intra-European traffic decline of 4% to 23%.

For procurement, finance and sustainability teams, this changes the nature of the budgeting exercise. Rising business travel and air freight costs are no longer a hypothetical risk but a structural trend to be built into multi-year forecasts.

Scope 3 reporting is directly affected: emissions from business travel and air freight already fall under CSRD obligations for many companies. Anticipating the rise of e-SAF also means anticipating how emission factors and associated costs will evolve in these disclosures.

How Heeding supports this new economic reality

Until 2032-2033, the e-SAF market will remain defined by physical scarcity and high prices. In this environment, the ability to tell current biofuels apart from the e-SAF volumes arriving progressively becomes a concrete operational advantage.

It also allows buyers to compare offers on objective criteria, cost, volume, availability and decarbonisation profile, and ensures the traceability required for CSRD reporting. For buyers needing to secure volumes in a tight market, this visibility becomes a steering tool, not just a compliance checkbox.

Aviation decarbonisation enters its industrial and financial phase

The IGF/IGEDD report marks a shift: aviation decarbonisation is no longer a technology debate, it has become an industrial and financial one. The ReFuelEU mandate is in place, but e-SAF supply will only follow through costly public support mechanisms and long-term contracts between producers and buyers.

For companies, the challenge is no longer waiting for the market to settle, but anticipating now the structural rise in air transport costs and its impact on Scope 3 emissions. Those who secure supply and carbon strategy early will be better positioned than those left exposed to spot market pricing.